The BOM gets it wrong

Well, we all know that they get it wrong, but that’s not surprising since it’s a tricky job to predict the future. However, since they don’t ever tell us how accurate they are, we never knew exactly how wrong they were. Until now.

Average of differences between temperature forecasts and observations (Melbourne, Sydney and Perth)

The chart above is the result of some analysis on the data I collected over a month (between 25th February and 25th March 2007) for the cities of Melbourne, Sydney and Perth. The first thing you’ll notice is that the 7-Day forecasts are not as accurate as the 1-Day (i.e. tomorrow) forecasts, and that as the forecasts head off into the future, they get less accurate. This is as you’d expect.

Other things to notice are that (i) Maximum temperature forecasts are generally less accurate than Minimum temperatures, (ii) The Melbourne Maximum temperatures are the least accurate, while Sydney Minimum temperatures are the most accurate, and (iii) none of the curves are heading towards zero, i.e. the forecasts for the following day are still a surprise.

Since the data is collected over the course of only one month, it’s hard to say if this sample is representative of all Bureau of Meteorology forecasting, but at least we now have some idea of their accuracy. The rule of thumb seems to be that the next day forecast will be out by on average 1.5 degrees, and the 4-day forecast will be out by on average at least 2 degrees. This is better than I thought it was going to be, to be honest.

I’ll probably continue to crunch the numbers and see if anything interesting comes out, but I think I’ve won my bet.

Hints for hinges

We’ve had fun over the last couple of weekends putting together IKEA furniture. It was our first wrestle (although probably not the last) with assembling their flatpacks, and easier than I feared. Although, I now have to agree with a friend who pointed out that IKEA is a conspiracy against single people – it would be very hard to put together if there was no one to help hold things. On second thoughts, it’s more of a conspiracy against friendless, orphaned, single people. See, we all knew IKEA couldn’t be as squeaky clean as they tell us.

Anyway, there was a point in assembling one of the pieces that the instructions failed us. In case anyone else has the same problem, hopefully a web search has sent you here and all will be solved. We had a problem with the IKEA hinges. They are very good hinges (actually produced by a company called Blum), but we had a problem attaching the two parts of the hinges. But only on one piece – the Effektiv storage cabinet. Different hinges are used on different items, and the Effektiv hinge is on the left, while the Pax hinge is on the right.

Effektiv IKEA/Blum hinge Pax IKEA/Blum hinge

The hinges look very similar, but require slightly different approaches to attach. The Pax hinge (on the right) snaps on by clipping the clasp piece on the door onto the end of the cabinet piece nearest to the edge, then pressing the the hinge until it clicks at the back. The Effektiv hinge (on the left) is similar, but can fall off after you’ve done the above, unless you also tap the hinge with a mallet. This is all that’s required in order to fix the hinge.

I hope no-one else gets stuck like we did…

Forecasting Conspiracy?

Weather Station, MelbourneOn the weekend, I (perhaps impulsively) agreed to a bet with a friend who claimed that Melbourne’s weather forecasts are accurate, while I suggested that they were slightly better than totally random. I am to record the 7-day forecasts for the next month and see how accurate the 4-day forecast is for Melbourne (compared with say, Sydney or Perth).

Since the Bureau of Meteorology does not publish their historical forecasts on their website, or indicate their forecasts’s probabilities, I think they must be embarassed by how imperfect their art is (at least when it comes to Melbourne). In a month’s time, we’ll know if that’s true, or if there’s a more likely explanation…

Back from India

Sitting on the Cancer sundial in JaipurAlthough Kate’s written a great summary over on the travel blog, I just wanted to mention that I’m back from India. It’s full of amazing sights, sounds, and smells. And, it was incredible to be a small part of AD’s wedding over there.

The only negative was that I picked up a bug over there and fell sick the day after we got back. On one of the internal flights, I sat next to a guy who coughed on me for a couple of hours, so it’s no surprise really that I caught it. It’s just a bit mundane that it wasn’t the water, the food, or the animals, and it’s the sort of thing I could have picked up on a flight to Sydney. Anyway, all’s well now!

Benno at CES

A friend of mine, Benno, is in Las Vegas at the CES conference this week. He works for Bluebox Devices and they’re launching their new media gizmo this week. After all the years of effort he’s put into it, it must be great to be there at CES showing and telling everyone about it.

Ron, David and Benno at CESHere’s a picture showing how excited they all are.

Well, maybe they are just tired. It’s from Graeme Thickins’ blog, where he covered several of the Australian contingent that’s over there at the moment.

Good luck guys, and hope you make lots of deals!

You can’t do this when you rent


Living Room – During

Originally uploaded by 4ndrewScott.

After much stress, we finally completed settlement on Friday for the new house. I can’t begin to tell you how outraged I was with the unprofessional conduct of certain parties on Friday, but we got the keys, and that’s the main thing.

On Saturday, Kate and I, together with Tim and Lynne, removed all the floor coverings in the front half of the house. The carpet in the front two bedrooms was easy, but the pink tiles in the hallway, living room, and dining room were more effort. It turns out that the tilers who put them in were very thorough; maybe a bit too thorough. The tiles were glued to a type of board, which was nailed to the floor. There were nails every 5cm or so. All up, a lot of nails.

We got a good technique going, and all the tiles were up by the end of the day. On Tuesday, new carpet will go down on the floorboards, and we move in on Thursday!

Diaspora Perthus

I recently heard a podcast about the Pittsburgh diaspora, and I realised that I was part of the Perth diaspora. According to TheFreeDictionary, a diaspora is “a dispersion of a people from their original homeland, or the community formed by such a people”. I know a fair number of people who hale from Perth, in Western Australia, and while they have lived away from there for many years, still retain a fondness, and a connection. Even while there doesn’t seem to be a conscious effort to construct an expatriate Perth community, they seem to form anyway.

I wonder if there are some distinct cultural traits that mark out people from Perth, such that we spot each other. There is a slight shift in accent across Australia, with people from W.A. having a more Pommie accent, and people from the eastern states having a more Kiwi accent. I’m not sure many Australians would recognise it though – certainly I don’t. Also, there’s a little local slang, such as “Freo” for “Fremantle” and “Rotto” for “Rottnest”, and the fact that we refer to bathing trunks as “bathers” (that one’s shared with a couple of other states, I believe). There’s a distinct driving behaviour on the road that is territorial and dismissive of pedestrians. Most people would lose that after driving elsewhere – or their insurance premiums would skyrocket.

The types of people I know that have left Perth have all had careers in fields like IT/Telecomms, Music, Academia, Finance or Law. All occupations that benefit from being close to a larger population centre. Maybe we find each other because we bump into each other at work?

So, if you catch your colleague moaning about the poor choice of beaches, spreading rumours about the dangers of quokkas, or complaining about the time they dated someone that turned out to be the sibling of a friend, then perhaps they’re part of the Perth diaspora.

Auction strategy


Winners are grinners

Originally uploaded by 4ndrewScott.

There are plenty of house-buying strategies out there, but the one I used on the weekend is supported by some common sense theory, is not illegal, but most importantly can actually work: we are now house-owners! I figure I won’t be needing to use this one again soon, so I’m happy to share it with anyone else who is bidding at auction.

Firstly, there are two possible auction outcomes: either the property sells at auction, or it doesn’t. If it doesn’t, then any bids you’ve made simply provide the vendor with a position to negotiate the price up from. So, it’s better if you haven’t made any bids in that case, and you can simply begin negotiations directly when the auction finishes.

In the case it’s going to sell, the property will go on the market at some point, and the auctioneer will indicate this by saying it’s “on the market”, it “will sell”, or something like that. After this has happened, you should begin to bid.

As auctions are a painful thing, pretty much anyone prepared to bid at one will have rationally thought out what their limit is, before they go. If your limit is below anyone else’s, you aren’t going to win. However, auctions aren’t a completely rational environment.

Auctioneers are very good at putting on a show, pressuring bidders, and otherwise channelling PT Barnum. Most people have an “emotional limit” that is higher than their “rational limit”. If they used their credit cards, sold some shares, restricted their lifestyle, borrowed a bit from a mate, or did something else that they don’t really want to do, then they could go beyond their rational limit. The auctioneer’s goal is to have people bid well above their rational limit, up to their emotional limit. Even if you have the highest rational limit, you will lose the auction if anyone’s emotional limit is higher than your rational limit.

The mechanics of auction are such that the winner is the one that’s prepared to pay the most, but they only need pay as much as the loser would pay. For example, if a person who is willing to pay up to $200,000 is bidding against another who is willing to pay up to $300,000, then the latter can win by paying $200,001. So, even if your rational limit is higher than everyone’s emotional limit and you win, you will pay a price equivalent to the loser’s emotional limit.

No legal auction strategy can lower people’s rational limit, but a good auction strategy can keep people’s emotional limit to close to their rational limit. This can save you money and may even win you the auction. Unfortunately, the auctioneer is trying to do the opposite, and push the emotional limits of the bidders.

So to beat the auctioneer, you need to join them. They power dress to impress, they stand at the front like a teacher at a class, and they whoop and shout to whip up the emotions. To counter this, you need to dress as a real-estate agent in a dark suit, stand at the front near the auctioneer, and every time the bid increased by someone else, calmly but immediately increase it yourself. You should look like someone with infinite patience and a infinite limit, and who is there to buy.

I felt a little silly, standing up there alone in my suit near the auctioneer. The auctioneer knew what I was up to and started to ignore me. When someone else bid me up, he wouldn’t come back to me straight away, so I had to shout out my bids in order to regain the lead. I think we would’ve won anyway, but this strategy probably saved us a few thousand dollars.

Trip to Perth

On the weekend, I was in Perth for my grandfather’s birthday. It was a very relaxing trip, and even so I was able to catch up with quite a few friends and family members. Plus, the weather was nice, so I also got to swim at the beach. All up, very restorative.

There are some things about Perth that make the place very special (some would say “stuck in time”, but that’s a bit mean). As well as the lack of daylight savings, extended trading hours and pokie machines in pubs, there’s an easygoing lifestyle and pace that suggests a level of contentment now rare here over east.

Another thing they’ve got is wildlife. In some suburbs, it’s not uncommon to find snakes in your backyard. If you go to Rottnest, you’ll certainly come face to face with a quokka at some point. Also, the many parkland reservations throughout the city host bigger animals like kangaroos. This photo was taken in a reasonably old suburb that’s about 10-15 minutes drive from the centre of town. My parents live nearby, and the kangaroos are a daily occurrence.

The AFL Grand Final as a spectator

We went to the AFL Grand Final on Saturday, to see the West Coast Eagles win by just a point. It was a frustrating game, but it was very exciting towards the end as Sydney Swans came from hugely behind to close on the Eagles. (And let me say that if you’re going to have a mascot, one based on a bird is guaranteed to look like a chicken. Except if it’s an Eagle, of course).

Anyway, it was the second time I’d been to a Grand Final, but the first time I’d seen the game from the stands. Back in 1997, we were there as part of the talent. Not the sporting talent of course – we were in the pre-match entertainment.

It’s still run by Kerrie Hayes Productions. And they still teach the same dance moves. As the little people dressed in black waved their arms to Up There Kazaly, my arms twitched in synch.

It was much better to be in the stands. You could see everything and there wasn’t a costume. The only way to get a birds-eye view from down on the ground was to dress as a chicken.